Peak Season Risk: Plan for the Pressure, Not Just the Volume

Every year, the run-up to Christmas brings a familiar challenge for New Zealand’s transport, logistics, warehousing and distribution businesses. Freight volumes climb, delivery windows tighten and sites get busier. More people, vehicles and equipment are needed to keep everything moving.

None of this comes as a surprise. Peak season is a predictable part of the year, yet the pressure it puts on an operation can still catch businesses short.

There’s a principle I’ve always held to in operational management:

What we do safely during normal operations must be achievable during peak season. If it isn’t, we need to increase the resources, not compromise the standards.

It’s a simple way of looking at capacity. If the work needs more people, equipment or time, that belongs in the plan, not in the problems to solve once the pressure arrives.

Capacity is more than a freight forecast

Most businesses have a good sense of what peak season will bring. Historical freight volumes and customer forecasts provide a useful starting point.

The harder part is turning that forecast into an operation that can carry the extra work. More freight may mean more vehicles, more forklifts and pallet jacks, extra dispatch support or changes to how goods move through a site. Adding people on its own doesn’t create capacity if docks, equipment or working space are already stretched.

Timing matters too. Bringing in casual and relief workers just as volumes peak puts extra load on supervisors and experienced staff. New starters may know the job, but knowing a particular site, its equipment and its way of working takes time.

Recruiting a few weeks ahead allows for induction, practical training and supervised work, so people are settled in their roles before the pace picks up.

Busier sites, more movement

A site set up for normal volumes can work very differently when incoming goods, outgoing deliveries and vehicle movements all increase at once.

Docks get congested. Staging areas fill up. Forklift movements increase, while drivers, warehouse workers, contractors and visitors share the same space. Traffic management and pedestrian separation that work well in March can come under strain in December.

Peak season is a good time to look at whether the site layout, loading schedules and traffic plans still fit the volume coming through.

When commercial pressure reaches the frontline

Customers want deliveries completed and deadlines met. Dispatch is balancing vehicles and drivers, while warehouse supervisors juggle incoming freight, loading schedules and limited space.

One extra delivery or late booking may look manageable. Together, those decisions add up.

WorkSafe’s research into road freight transport identified business and industry practices, fatigue and other road users as key risk factors. It’s a reminder that health and safety outcomes are shaped by how work is organised, not only by what individual workers do.

A driver running behind schedule, a forklift operator in a congested loading area or a dispatcher working to tight delivery windows may all be feeling the effect of decisions made earlier in the chain.

Fatigue

Longer shifts, changing rosters and less recovery time all affect concentration, judgement and reaction time. Research has long linked fatigue to safety, and WorkSafe’s review of fatigue interventions looks at the role of work arrangements and organisational controls.

What happens outside work plays a part as well. Family commitments, a second job or a long commute can all add to tiredness over a busy few weeks.

The question goes beyond whether breaks are taken and work-time rules are followed. It’s whether the workload, staffing and scheduling were realistic to begin with.

Knowing when the operation is under pressure

An operation can keep hitting its delivery targets while risk builds in the background. Congestion, repeated overtime, equipment defects left unresolved and informal workarounds can all be signs that systems are stretched.

These signs won’t always show up in injury figures. A Safe Work Australia review of health and safety measurement points to the limits of relying on recorded injuries alone.

Feedback from drivers and warehouse teams, maintenance records, near-miss reports and supervisors’ observations often show where the pressure is building, well before it becomes an incident.

Preparation makes the difference

Peak season doesn’t need a different standard of safety. It needs an operation with enough capacity to keep its usual standards under greater demand.

That means planning for more than freight volumes: time to recruit and prepare extra workers, enough plant and equipment, a site layout that fits the volume, and realistic commitments about what can be delivered.

The same thinking applies to any predictable busy period, whether seasonal demand, a major project, a production deadline or a new contract.

Peak-season readiness isn’t only about how much extra work an operation can take on. It’s whether that work can be done safely, to the same standards as the rest of the year.

Sources and further reading

WorkSafe New Zealand: Risk factors in the road freight transport industry

WorkSafe New Zealand: Literature review of fatigue interventions

Williamson, A., Lombardi, D. A., Folkard, S., Stutts, J., Courtney, T. K., & Connor, J. L. (2011). The link between fatigue and safety. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 43(2), 498-515.

Safe Work Australia: Issues in the measurement and reporting of work health and safety performance: A review

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